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One you may have missed … 6 Nov 2009

Posted by InformationSpan in ITasITis, Impact of IT, Tech Watch, Technorati.
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… as I nearly did. My post from a year ago on reCAPTCHA is still one of the most visited on this blog, and you can see reCAPTCHA in action on my own main website where I use it to protect my email address from spambots.

Well, in mid September reCAPTCHA was acquired by Google. The story’s in Computerworld or on the Google blog. And as Computerworld comments, it’s a little component of Google’s mission to make all the world’s content accessible. The world is full of scanned archives of not-entirely-readable text (machine readable that is). reCAPTCHA helps to crack that problem. As it scans the world’s archives, Google will put it to work way beyond the academic sector where it originated.

Links:
• Google acquires reCAPTCHA in two-for-one deal, Computerworld, 16 Sep 2009
• reCAPTCHA uses one problem to crack another, ITasITis, 27 Nov 2008
• Teaching computers to read: Google acquires reCAPTCHA, Official Google Blog, 16 Sep 2009
• reCaptcha

Windows 7: an analyst case study 5 Nov 2009

Posted by InformationSpan in ITasITis, Impact of IT, Insight services, Managing IT, Tech Watch, Technorati.
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A couple of weeks downstream from the official launch, it’s worth taking a look at the commentary around Windows 7. Where are the insights relevant to enterprise deployment? Who’s providing good coverage?

I’m not looking at consumer-level information. Oddly enough, that actually broadens the review: counter-intuitive it may be, but of course the enterprise analysts have been working forward to the event for some time. But what’s the picture now, since Win 7 has seen the official light of day? Where might you go for ongoing advice, as you plot your strategy?

ITasITis regulars will remember I did a similar review of coverage of the Satyam debacle, earlier in the year. This time, there seems to be a lot less to review from the insight providers. News coverage of course is significant; and at the business end, Wharton Business School’s Knowledge@Wharton emphasises the commercial importance of Win7, for Microsoft, after the generally agreed lack of impact from Vista. The article gathers various opinions and research that suggests a better reception this time. But this isn’t the coverage that will be of most benefit to IT strategists.

So: where will you go for advice? Primarily, it’s the two majors: Gartner and Forrester. There’s a significant difference in approach in their mainstream research; and, also, in the flow of ongoing advice.

In official research, Gartner suggest that enterprises should plan an 18-month project to migrate to Win7. Starting now, presumably, since the research is dated 1 October. As Steve Kleynhans points out (and comment is pretty much unanimous on this) this will be the first major migration since the adoption of either Win2000 or XP in most enterprises.

More recently still, and in research available to a free account, Gartner advise that “Windows 7 is unskippable”. This paper advises that it’s “conservative” to plan to eliminate XP by mid-2012, when problems with third party applications may start to appear. So if you’re on the 18-month project, there’s time in hand – but not too much, given the annual-or-longer IT planning horizon. For other Gartner research, especially if you’re an account holder, drop onto the site and just search for “Windows 7″.

For sure, if an enterprise is intending to roll out Win7 across the organisation then the various stages of preparation, inventory, development, testing and rollout have to be gone through. So Gartner are giving thorough advice if your enterprise is still of a mind to create a corporate desktop image and roll it out everywhere.

But second, and importantly: Gartner are also blogging, though (typically) it may not be obvious. They are using Brian Gammage’s blog to capture thoughts on Win7 as the story unfolds. For ongoing insight from the majors, if you don’t have a Gartner account – or even if you do – this is the place to start. Remember, the blogs are not “published Gartner research” – they may give a different picture from the considered reports.

And a sideline. If you want to search Gartner blogs, there’s now a custom search on the InformationSpan Analyst Blogs index. Try it!

Forrester Research, in a piece published just a few days before the official launch, are much more inclined to get the train moving now and move it a bit at a time. Their advice is that enterprises “should: 1) start or accelerate application compatibility testing [...]; 2) plan for rolling out [...] small batches on new hardware initially; 3) weigh the costs and benefits of upgrading existing machines with at least 2 GB of memory; 4) start developing training sessions and tips and tricks guidance; and 5) prepare for — and embrace — empowered users who want to be early adopters.” Looks like they agree with Gartner about development, integration and testing but take more account of XP being long in the tooth; this advice will get experience moving.

A search on Forrester’s site reveals a steady flow of research and opinion over at least the last year, and if enterprises have been following this they should have a fair idea of what their strategy is (not “will be”) and of what they need to do to get there. Forrester do note, in a report from June, that both Vista and MacOS were picking up traction in the enterprise as XP declined.

What else is out there? Actually, not much unless you’ve got accounts with other providers; in which case you’re probably aware of it already. For serious enterprise advice about Windows 7, the two major providers appear to be the only shows in town. If you want an easy-access outside thought, though, have a look at today’s Guardian which reviews Windows 7 against the latest Ubuntu Linux and throws in a mention of MacOS Snow Leopard for good measure. OK, it’s from the personal perspective, but it’s worth remembering that Macs are variously reported as making a stealthy comeback in the enterprise.

Links:
• Opening Windows: Knowledge@Wharton, 22 Oct 2009
• Prepare for Windows 7 in Three Phases, Gartner document G00170151, 1 Oct 2009 (link is to a Google cache copy, so isn’t guaranteed; this report is not openly available on gartner.com)
• Reasons to Care About Windows 7, and Reasons Not to, Gartner document G00171872, 19 Oct 2009
• Windows 7 Commercial Adoption Outlook, Forrester, 15 Oct 2009; the report is quoted extensively in XP to lose adoption war to Windows 7, Computerworld, 20 Oct 2009
• Corporate Desktop Operating System Trends Q3 2008 To Q2 2009, Forrester, 22 Jun 2009

Other reports:
• Breaking the Windows XP Ice Pack: Can Windows 7 Turn Up the Heat on Replacements?, IDC, October 2009, primarily a market research perspective
• Windows 7 or Ubuntu 9.10: battle of the operating systes, Guardian Technology 5 Nov 2009
• Windows 7 Update Advisor, Tom Austin, Gartner Blog Network, 2 Nov 2009

The ambulance down in the valley 8 Oct 2009

Posted by InformationSpan in ITasITis, Impact of IT, Tech Watch, Technorati.
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Basex is a tech research and reporting company whose regular newsfeeds I scan and, from time to time, report from. They track and report on information management and particularly on solutions to “information overload”.

Jonathan Spira’s TechWatch newsletters focus often on an issue which afflicts most of us – too much incoming information. The list is long: not just email but blog updates, tweets, personal network posts, messages through other applications, and more. These days, it’s not just the inbox although we can choose to flow a fair amount of it that way or to keep it out.

Well … There’s an old story about a road along a dangerous cliff, with a regular series of accidents due to people walking or driving off the road. The local people decided something needed to be done, so they clubbed together and supported the provision of an ambulance to be permanently stationed down below in the valley. Till someone else pointed out it would be much better and, probably, cheaper to put a guard rail at the side of the road at the top.

That’s where we’re at with incoming overload; except that every attempt to erect a guard rail is frustrated one way or another. The volume just grows, and things fall off the cliff because they get overlooked. So the ambulance helps handle the results; and Basex recently profiled two ambulances.

One is Gist, which just launched (Google-style) a public beta service of an app which is web based, and which reads your email and all those other feeds, prioritises the content, and delivers you the top stuff. There’s a video on the Gist website which of course talks up the service.

The other, Liaise, is an add-on for Outlook that scans your incoming messages specifically for action items, and creates a to-do list. It’s not entirely automated; from the video, it looks as if the message originator has to select sending via Liaise to capture the key points (that’s not exactly how it appears from the Basex description; but Jonathan may have seen the actual product, and I haven’t). It does appear, once messages are set up in Liaise, to have significant capability for team, task and action management. Sounds brilliant, but I can foresee spammers figuring out how to craft emails that get actions into people’s lists.

And it just seems to me that if the number of similar tools grows (as Basex seem to think it will) then we’ll need a tool to manage the output from the tools …

Links:
• In the Briefing Room: Gist, Basex 17 Sep 2009
• In the Briefing Room: Liaise, Basex 24 Sep 2009
• Gist (you might want to go to the Blog, and page down for the initial launch announcement and video)
• Liaise

Scale out, not up: the Cloud mindset is different 16 Sep 2009

Posted by InformationSpan in Consumerization, ITasITis, Impact of IT, Managing IT, Tech Watch, Technorati.
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Just come off a call with a group which meets regularly by phone to think about the issues of moving corporate IT services to the cloud.

The debate is moving on. Originally, it was triggered by the emergence of Amazon’s EC2 and S3, and similar services, which enable individuals to have easy by-the-drink access to high powered and flexible compute and storage power.

Then, it was key questions about how to enable enterprises to move services to “the cloud”: what do you move and how, and what are the risks that have to be understood and managed?

Now, there’s an understanding that a hybrid model will have a lot to recommend it. Cloud services offer flexibility, and that’s more important than cost saving. The question is no longer “In-house or cloud” but “How do we integrate cloud with in-house, for flexibility and overflow”. You set up multiple-hosted services so that when in-house runs out of capacity, the request is routed seamlessly to a cloud resource.

Someone on the call characterised this as “Scaling out, not up”. And it requires a different mind-set when applications are created. Something which recalled to my mind the “reverse assumptions” for heterogeneous wide area distributed systems, created by the UK/European ANSA project something like 20 years ago. I said I’d re-publish them. Here they are.

When building a distributed system, a number of assumptions which are commonly made when engineering systems for single hosts not only become invalid, but have to be reversed. The most important of these are:
local >> remote
more failure modes are possible for remote interactions than for local ones
direct >> indirect binding
configuration becomes a dynamic process, requiring support for linkage at execution time
sequential >> concurrent execution
true concurrency requires mechanisms to provide sequentiality
synchronous >> asynchronous interaction
communication delays require support for asynchronous interactions and pipelining
homogeneous >> heterogeneous environment
requires common data representation for interactions between remote systems
single instance >> replicated group
replication can provide availability and/or dependability
fixed location >> migration
locations of remote interfaces may not be permanent
unified name space >> federated name spaces
need for naming constructs which mirror administrative boundaries across different remote systems
shared memory >> disjoint memory
shared memory mechanisms cannot operate successfully on a large scale and where remote operations are involved.

There was, and is, another one as well. When you’re creating an application – any application! – don’t assume it will always stay with the localised architecture you’ve created it in. The gotcha assumption these days is that the app is being created with links to a private cloud not the public one, so it’ll stay that way. Deal with it – interfaces, databases, security, the whole nine yards – as if, one day, parts of it will sit on public infrastructure.

Links:
• ANSA project, 1984-1998, document repository (now free access)
• ANSA: An Engineer’s Introduction to the Architecture, ANSA project, Nov 1989 (see section 2.1 p 3 for the reversed assumptions)
Distributed architectures: reverse assumptions, still relevant, my previous post (ITasITis, Jan 2008)

The Long Tail of Innovation 15 Sep 2009

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I’ve had a note for months to catch up on reports which quote Pfizer along the lines of “Watch out for the Innovation Killers”.

It’s not new news; see some of the Links at the end or try a Google search. But when I finally got to it properly, I discovered two things. First, it’s even less new news than I thought. The “Innovation Killers” idea goes back several years, and has been covered by Christensen et al (who else?) in Harvard Business Review.

Second, I was alerted to this by a note from Doug Neal of Leading Edge Forum (LEF). And his trigger was (I believe) a presentation from a LEF session, which is very well worth working through. It’s available, open access.

Yes, it does contain the “Innovation Killers” slide. But its primary thesis is much more than this. And it’s compelling for anyone trying to develop successful innovation strategies that depend on more than just serendipity.

Rob Spencer’s main theme, in Falls Church back in April, was that innovation is a “Long Tail” phenomenon. There may be a handful of people who can come up with a lot of worthwhile ideas. But if you can open up to the vast array of individuals in a large organisation (such as a global pharma company) then the potential number of ideas increases enormously even if only (say) 20% of those people contribute only one or two ideas each. If you don’t, you miss out. Big time.

When I started writing this piece, I mistyped the title as “The Log Tail …”; and I almost left it that way, because Rob shows that the metrics of this kind of innovation activity don’t become predictable until you learn to use a log-normal plot instead of our usual mean-and-spread bell curves (such as Six Sigma is based on). A metric like “Average number of ideas per individual” is meaningless. In a telling phrase, Rob categorises it as “not even wrong”. That is, it’s the basis of the analysis that’s way off target, not just the maths.

This Long Tail version of innovation can’t be done without means of reaching out to the wide area community. That doesn’t just mean a wiki; the presentation includes a string of practical and structured techniques, far too many to summarise here.

So, innovators and, even more, innovation facilitators: get hold of this presentation, and some of the materials surrounding it. Read, review, and learn!

Links:
• Horses, Carts and Long Tails, Rob Spencer (Pfizer) at LEF Forum, April 2009, PDF
• Making innovation count in uncertain times, In Vivo, 25.1, 1-8 (Jan 2007), PDF
• Innovation Killers: How Financial Tools Destroy Your Capacity to Do New Things, Christensen, C., Kaufman, S.P., &  Shih, W, Harvard Business Review, Jan 2008, pp 98-105. Web link is to summary only; library access required for full text
• or search Google for “innovation killers”

Back to the decentralised future? 14 Sep 2009

Posted by InformationSpan in ITasITis, Impact of IT, Social media, Tech Watch, Technorati.
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Andy Oram at O’Reilly Radar has published a lengthy and thoughtful article discussing the social web’s increasing reliance on centralised services, why this causes problems, and whether/how a return to what I might call “managed decentralisation” might help.

There’s a thoughful discussion of the problems, including the imposition of multiple, multiply-centralised flat namespaces. Trust and authentication which are issues to be addressed, because in the absence of central authority you have no central management for abuse; but some variety of a trust network might cope with that (compare the way LinkedIn works to authenticate your request to connect with someone). And there’s some thought about protocols that could contribute to the solution (rssCloud and Jabber’s now-standardised XMPP) which have a less centralised basis.

Well worth a read.

Links:
• RSS never blocks you or goes down: why social networks need to be decentralized, O’Reilly Radar, 143 Sep 2009
• rssCloud (or RSS 2.0), rsscloud.org
• XMPP, XMPP Standards Foundation

“Cosmopolitans”+”Locals” = “global team” ** updated 10 Sep 2009

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A quick alert for readers, especially those of us who espouse the various forms of collaborative working and online-mediated teams to operate globally.

Every so often, research revisits “What makes a global team work?” and Wharton Business School have done just that. A lot of their conclusions relate to established cultural assumptions, and issues like rotating meetings so it’s not always the same people who have to be in a 3 a.m. Most of us say “Sure, we know that”; but it’s useful to have them restated in what is, in this article, quite a concise summary at its close.

But there is one concept that might be less familiar. Global enterprise values people with experience of working in different regions, different languages and different cultures; and rightly so, even if the company’s lingua franca is English (ok, I used a Latin phrase deliberately there!). Wharton call these people Cosmpolitans.

But the article re-emphasises that a successful team also values the local. Of course, nothing guarantees success and operating across boundaries can be divisive as well as beneficial. But Wharton believe that when cosmopolitans sit down alongside people with deep and long experience of their local market, and each values the other’s contribution, the synergy at least enhances the likelihood of successful outcomes.

You don’t have to agree; but I’d recommend reading the article for a reminder of some fundamental truths.

[Note added 11th Sept: there's a related comment from the British Computer Society today. It's a case study from a global engineering group for whom sustainability is part of their business and therefore reducing their carbon footprint - travelling less, in effect - is crucial. Significant that this should appear as we reach the anniversary of "9/11". I'll just quote their conclusion: The old adage of 'think global, act local' is ... replaced by 'create global, deliver local'. And collaboration is the key to cracking this new world order.

(Two posts in one day … must be catching up!)

Link:
• ‘Locals,’ ‘Cosmopolitans’ and Other Keys to Creating Successful Global Teams, Knowledge@Wharton, 2 Sept 2009
Globalisation, innovation and collaboration, BCS, Sept 2009

iPod goes into decline – apparently 10 Sep 2009

Posted by InformationSpan in Consumerization, ITasITis, Impact of IT, Social media, Tech Watch, Technorati.
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Today’s Technology section in The Guardian carries a piece about the decline in sales of single-purpose digital music players in general, and Apple’s iPod in particular. If the data are accurate, it looks like the market (at least in western markets) is pretty much saturated, and new sales are limited largely to replacements; the lifetime of these devices, apparently, is about two years.

Well, not really a surprise. Classic S-curve stuff. There are only so many people in the world who want to own an iPod. And, so it’s suggested, the trend these days is towards devices with their own connectivity so that they can download directly and don’t have to be plugged in to a computer. Something like the iPhone, perhaps … or even my beginning-to-expire Nokia N73 Music Edition, which I only bought because it was the only one in stock in the store, I don’t use for music, and find highly annoying when every so often it starts to play noises in my pocket.

But one of the reasons I bought this particular phone is because it will replicate calendar and address book with my Mac. I take pictures with it; and I store a small handful of useful documents, like the local bus timetable, or schedules and confirmations for the current trip. And very occasionally I even do Internet or email on it. So multi-function is definitely In; I just don’t happen to combine music with it. Apple have sold 30 million iPhones in two years, as Steve Jobs announced yesterday. Part of the success of the iPhone and the iPod Touch is attributed to the App Store, which has notched up 1.8 billion downloads from 75,000 apps. Multi-functionality joins the consumer economy!

But the Guardian’s report goes on to suppose that the decline of new purchases of iPods will take the music industry with it, and I need convincing of that. The report quotes Mark Mulligan of Forrester who believes that “logically” the slow-down in device sales leads to a slow-down in downloads. But that assumes that the only people who buy downloads are first-time new iPod users. I don’t recall that sales of old-fashioned singles were expected to slow down when every teenager in the world owned a record player: or CDs, for that matter.

And it doesn’t square with Mulligan’s published research. Admittedly I can only see the abstracts, but in his most recent report he talks about the “immensity of the new creative opportunities that will accompany the radical product innovation that the music industry so desperately needs“, and about the continuity of relationship between music-makers and their buyers.

On Forrester’s Consumer Product Strategy blog, he admits, like many commentators, to being “underwhelmed” by Apple’s announcements this week – though the faithful were clearly glad to see Steve Jobs back in circulation, and gave him a standing ovation. But he suggests that “Apple is playing a smart game that builds the social context of their devices …”, with links emerging between iTunes and the social mediaverse (Facebook, YouTube, Spotify and so on). Perhaps, in line with what Mulligan suggests, more like my N73 than my iPod?

Links:
• Apple Special Event, Sept 2009: watch the video. Or see the iPod and iPhone press releases at Apple Hot News
• Music Release Windows: The Product Innovation That The Music Business Can’t Do Without. Forrester Research, 9 Sept 2009
• Is Apple Playing a Subtle But Smart Platform Strategy? Forrester Consumer Products Strategy blog, 9 Sept 2009
• Twilight of the iPods The Guardian (Technology), 10 Sept 2009

Ray Kurzweil’s Singularity University, Silicon Valley 7 Sep 2009

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Getting back to earth after a great summer culminating in the wedding of my elder son, I came back to the Guardian’s report of this summer’s Singularity University summer school in Silicon Valley. At first view, it sounds like geek heaven: nine weeks in the former Moffett Airfield base, with high profile names like Vint Cerf, Nobel prizewinners and investors; and covering topics from the sub-microscopic (nanotechnology) to the super-macro scale (space science). Participants paid US$25K to attend. What’s it about?

Singularity University (SU from now on) has as its masthead mission: “Preparing humanity for accelerating technological change”. At greater length, this becomes: to “assemble, educate and inspire … leaders who strive to understand and facilitate the development of exponentially advancing technologies in order to address humanity’s grand challenges”. The masthead is somewhat misleading; this is about leading and driving technology, not just reacting to it; but it is about using technology to respond to and overcome “some of the planet’s major problems”.

It was, the Guardian says, the brainchild of the legendary Ray Kurzweil (Chancellor) and space flight pioneer Peter Diamandis (Vice Chancellor). There’s significant support from Google and from Stanford University; Cerf, of course, is now on the Google staff and Stanford’s links include their Media-X research mediation network for industry.

I won’t go over the list of ideas and projects which the Guardian’s report describes; follow the link below to read the article, or go to SU’s overview video linked below.

But the article is perhaps misleading. When I read it, I had the impression of a one-off  summer school. Far from it: SU runs ongoing executive programmes and graduate programmes, and the reported graduate session this year was a pilot for an annual event. The pilot was limited to 40 students. In future, the numbers will be treble this.

Check it out! And by the way, when you land on the home page, there’s a rotating series of photos from this year’s event. There are three panels at left. Two of them link to intake information. It isn’t immediately obvious that the third is the caption for the current pic. The Overview, from the top menu, provides a list of SU’s guiding lights.

The singularity, if I’ve understood it correctly (and only from the outline, not from reading the book), is the point at which human intelligence becomes primarily non-biological: the future Kurzweil envisages is one where the electronic brain-power we deploy comes to dominate human intelligence. So you might also like to look at Ray Kurzweil’s singularity.com website, with details of his book “The Singularity is Near” and links to notes which are, in his view, pointers in that direction.

Links:
• Singularity University
• A school for changing the world, The Guardian (Technology section), 3 Sept 2009. There are links to coverage in The Guardian’s weekly tech podcast, and to a picture gallery
The Singulary is Near: book, and other resources

See ITasITis on Social Computing Journal 3 Aug 2009

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My recent posting Social computing and the enterprise user: something’s missing has been syndicated on Social Computing Journal: welcome to any visitors who reach this blog via the link there.

I’m off on the ferry tomorrow morning for a few days cycling in Normandy: via the Avenue Verte from Dieppe to Neufch&acircum;tel-en-Bray, and then radiating out from there. I’m taking Spirit Level and Virtual Shadows with me as reading – and some lighter stuff, of course.

See you when I’m back.

Links:
Social Computing Journal: look for Four Strategies for User-Guided Enterprise Social Computing (3 Aug 2009 there)
Social computing and the enterprise user: something’s missing, ITasITis,27 Jul 2009
• Avenue Verte Dieppe-Forges (in French, how’s yours?)
What am I reading (or click the link in the masthead)