Financial hype cycle … 16 Dec 2008Posted by Tony Law in Insight services.
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Here’s one for Jackie and Mark … reading Niall Ferguson’s analysis of the financial crisis (published in Vanity Fair, which surprised me), buried on page 3, there’s this description of the classic financial “bubble” in five stages:
(1) Displacement: Some change in economic circumstances creates new and profitable opportunities. (2) Euphoria, or overtrading: A feedback process sets in whereby expectation of rising profits leads to rapid growth in asset prices. (3) Mania, or bubble: The prospect of easy capital gains attracts first-time investors and swindlers eager to mulct them of their money. (4) Distress: The insiders discern that profits cannot possibly justify the now exorbitant price of the assets and begin to take profits by selling. (5) Revulsion, or discredit: As asset prices fall, the outsiders stampede for the exits, causing the bubble to burst.
Well, the terms are different but the shape is the same!
Incidentally, if you’re like me a regular visitor to the US who has always wondered what Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are, Niall Ferguson explains that too!
Oh, and how did I come across this reference? Oddly enough, through Forrester’s CEO. The link is in George Colony’s most recent posting on his Counterintuitive blog. Watch for discussion in the comments there.
• Wall Street lays another egg, Niall Ferguson, Vanity Fair, Dec 2008
• Best Explanation of the Financial Mess, George Colony, Counterintuitive, Forrester Research, 15 Dec 2008
• Mastering the Hype Cycle, Jackie Fenn and Mark Raskino. Gartner blogs (and see my recent post)
Have you seen … Harbor Research 11 Dec 2008Posted by Tony Law in Insight services, Tech Watch, Technorati.
Tags: Emerging Technology, technology watch
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I’m writing an InformationSpan coverage report on emerging technology. It’s rapidly narrowed down to reviewing insight sources which are of use to technology strategists, who need to review emerging trends and novel technologies, and assess them for potential impact, and figure out what to pilot.
Among the major service providers, of course Gartner’s long established Emerging Trends and Technologies group led by Jackie Fenn holds the lead; I recently covered Jackie’s and Mark Raskino’s book Mastering the Hype Cycle. But the point of this post is to give readers a sneak preview of the report (it’s still far from finished) by highlighting a discovery.
Harbor Research reckon to focus on the “pervasive internet” or what Forrester call the X (for “Extended”) Internet – sometimes expressed as “Everything connected, everything communicating”. In writing my couple of short paragraphs, I signed up for their free access and downloaded a recent white paper called Designing the Future of Information. It’s my kind of paper. It’s strongly focussed. It covers a couple of novel technology developments, the academic groups which originated them (at MIT in this case), and their status as they come to market. It sets them in the wider context, it links to open standards, and it assesses (in this case, enthusiastically) their potential impact. It makes connections between them. And it suggests an impact from the synergy, which might not be seen looking at the technologies individually.
I’ve only one quibble, which is that the report doesn’t carry a date (except the year, in the copyright claim). This is a shame, since one of the things you need to know about a report like this is its topicality in months, not years. Otherwise, for a technology specialist, this is a rich resource. Have a look at Harbor!
Harbor Research is online at http://www.harborresearch.com/
GetArticlesFree … what *do* they do? 10 Dec 2008Posted by Tony Law in Tech Watch, Technorati.
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WordPress flagged up to me that my recent posting on ReCaptcha has been picked up by the site at GetArticlesFree.com. So I went and had a look.
Sure, it’s recognisably my content. But it looks as if it’s been auto-translated into some obscure foreign language, and then auto-translated back into garbled English.
Action: if you pick anything up on GetArticlesFree, don’t set your expectations or judge the posting by what appears on their site. Track back to the original!
GetArticlesFree is at http://getarticlesfree.com/
Tags: Analyst Perspectives, Techra, Zimmermann
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Jim Zimmermann, who founded Techra and now runs the Analyst Perspectives blog, has featured us on Analyst Perspectives this week. Have a look here, and link to Jim for another source of news on this industry.
I’m in the process of rebuilding the InformationSpan website. It won’t surprise friends to know that the new version looks fine on my own system, but absolute pants when I review it on the standard Windows platform! More about this when it launches (soon) but one of the new features will be a page of links to other sources about the insight services marketplace – including Analyst Perspectives and other blogs. Watch this space.
In the meantime – thanks Jim!